Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 86

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 15 yards to CHI 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 36-D.Johnson pushed ob at CHI 4 for 25 yards (84-B.Braunecker). PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 4.

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.25 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model