Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- SF offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- CHI offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- SF defense: +0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- QB edge to CHI: Matt Barkley (CHI) -0.057 vs Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.088 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 13
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 06:59 FG SF (6:59) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – CHI 0
- Q2 02:00 FG SF (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 6 – CHI 0
- Q2 00:35 TD CHI (:35) 24-J.Howard left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CHI 6
- Q3 09:36 TD CHI (9:36) 24-J.Howard left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CHI 13
- Q3 06:25 TD CHI (6:25) 24-J.Howard left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CHI 20
- Q4 13:01 FG CHI (13:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. SF 6 – CHI 24
- Q4 02:00 SAF CHI (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (94-L.Floyd). SF 6 – CHI 26
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 40%
(9:19) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:32) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to CHI 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to SF 22, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley. PENALTY on SF-24-S.Draughn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 22.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 31Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 31% p(FG) 73%
(13:18) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 26 yards to CHI 5, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(9:18) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 15 yards to CHI 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 36-D.Johnson pushed ob at CHI 4 for 25 yards (84-B.Braunecker). PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 4.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%
(6:59) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(8:39) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to CHI 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan. PENALTY on SF-13-A.Burbridge, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 36.
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Q3 SF 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(4:29) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CHI 35, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(3:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to SF 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
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Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(1:22) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CHI 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 16 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%
(13:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:03) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to CHI 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 31 for 3 yards (86-K.Nelson).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 22%
(8:14) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback. PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.
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Q4 SF 4th & 19 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(5:39) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CHI 46, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 39 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 54%
(2:21) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to SF 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.
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