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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 13

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.14 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP