Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(8:39) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to CHI 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan. PENALTY on SF-13-A.Burbridge, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model