4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 44

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.85 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model