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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to CHI 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model