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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 29

Washington Commanders 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 3-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.62 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model