Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- WAS offense: +0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to WAS: Carson Palmer (ARI) -0.032 vs Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.207 EPA/dropback
- ARI defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- ARI offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- WAS on 3 more days rest than ARI
- WAS defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
WAS
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:48 TD ARI (6:48) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – ARI 6
- Q2 09:53 FG WAS (9:53) 3-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – ARI 7
- Q2 01:55 FG WAS (1:55) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – ARI 7
- Q2 00:11 FG ARI (:11) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler. WAS 6 – ARI 10
- Q3 12:45 TD WAS (12:45) 74-A.Kouandjio and 96-H.Bates reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – ARI 10
- Q3 04:16 TD ARI (4:16) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 15-M.Floyd for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – ARI 16
- Q3 01:12 TD WAS (1:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 80-J.Crowder for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – ARI 17
- Q4 11:16 TD ARI (11:16) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 31-D.Johnson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – ARI 23
- Q4 06:06 FG WAS (6:06) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 23 – ARI 24
- Q4 02:03 TD ARI (2:03) 3-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 14-J.Nelson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. WAS 23 – ARI 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(3:35) 2-D.Butler punts 41 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 25 for 10 yards (22-T.Jefferson).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 42%
(1:07) 5-T.Way punts 30 yards to ARI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson. PENALTY on ARI-29-T.Simon, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at ARI 15.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(13:32) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to WAS 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 31 for 7 yards (22-T.Jefferson, 52-Z.Gooden).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%
(9:53) 3-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(7:26) 2-D.Butler punts 28 yards to ARI 48, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EPp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(1:55) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%
(:11) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 67%
(6:06) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(3:47) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to ARI 48 for 14 yards (24-J.Norman).