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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 35

Washington Commanders 20 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model