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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to ARI 48 for 14 yards (24-J.Norman).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model