4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 2-D.Butler punts 41 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 25 for 10 yards (22-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model