4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 14 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(9:07) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.25 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model