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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
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Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

ARI
45.0%
MIA
55.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Carson Palmer (ARI): -0.020 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 18 mph
  • Ryan Tannehill (MIA): +0.012 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22
–
MIA 23
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

ARI

Tyrann Mathieu S Out Shoulder
John Brown WR Questionable Illness
Markus Golden LB Questionable Hamstring
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Elbow
Tharold Simon CB Questionable Ankle

MIA

Mike Pouncey C Out Hip
Kiko Alonso LB Doubtful Hand
Jelani Jenkins LB Doubtful Knee
Mario Williams DE Doubtful Ankle
Branden Albert T Questionable Wrist
Kenyan Drake RB Questionable Knee
Earl Mitchell DT Questionable Back
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Back
Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Ankle
Anthony Steen G Questionable Shoulder
Kraig Urbik C Questionable Knee
Isa Abdul-Quddus S Questionable Neck
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Knee
Matt Moore QB Questionable right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 23
–
MIA 26

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:33 TD MIA (9:33) 79-S.Young reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 10-K.Stills for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – MIA 6
  • Q1 08:12 TD ARI (8:12) 14-J.Nelson right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – MIA 7
  • Q2 11:47 TD MIA (11:47) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 80-D.Sims for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – MIA 13
  • Q2 01:23 FG ARI (1:23) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 9 – MIA 14
  • Q3 11:22 TD MIA (11:22) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 26-D.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-14-J.Landry, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ARI 9 – MIA 20
  • Q4 07:11 TD ARI (7:11) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 10-B.Golden for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-C.Wake]. ARI 15 – MIA 21
  • Q4 03:05 TD ARI (3:05) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 14-J.Nelson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 21 – MIA 23
  • Q4 00:01 FG MIA (:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. ARI 23 – MIA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 26%

    (2:58) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 36 yards to ARI 10, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-48-M.Gray.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:50) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 62 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-J.Landry to ARI 48 for 17 yards (33-K.Williams). PENALTY on ARI-10-B.Golden, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 48.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 33%

    (9:07) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 83%

    (3:08) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 46%

    (1:23) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:19) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to ARI 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 24 for 4 yards (35-W.Aikens). PENALTY on ARI-41-M.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:22) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 47 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:05) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to ARI 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:42) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 53 yards to MIA 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-J.Landry to MIA 47 for 10 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by ARI-57-A.Okafor at MIA 47. 57-A.Okafor to MIA 47 for no gain (14-J.Landry). MIA-32-K.Drake was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 38%

    (13:56) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to ARI 1, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:24) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to 50, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:04) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to ARI 24, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 25 for 1 yard (46-N.Hewitt).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:39) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 43 yards to MIA 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-J.Landry to ARI 47 for 20 yards (89-H.Valles).