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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(1:23) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.85 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model