Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 14 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to ARI 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 24 for 4 yards (35-W.Aikens). PENALTY on ARI-41-M.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.54 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -2.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model