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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(9:22) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 47 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.94 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP