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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 21 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(5:05) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to ARI 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.27 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP