Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 90

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(3:42) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 53 yards to MIA 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-J.Landry to MIA 47 for 10 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by ARI-57-A.Okafor at MIA 47. 57-A.Okafor to MIA 47 for no gain (14-J.Landry). MIA-32-K.Drake was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 90, worth -5.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model