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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to ATL 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP