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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

ATL
74.7%
LA
25.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Jared Goff (LA) -0.312 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.242 EPA/dropback
  • ATL offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.170 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 26
–
LA 18
Projected margin: ATL by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

ATL

Adrian Clayborn DE Out Knee
Mohamed Sanu WR Out Groin
Julio Jones WR Questionable Toe
Robenson Therezie S Questionable Ankle
Jake Matthews T Questionable Knee

LA

Benny Cunningham RB Doubtful Neck
E.J. Gaines CB Questionable Thigh
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 42
–
LA 14

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:56 TD ATL (14:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 16-J.Hardy for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD ATL (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – LA 0
  • Q2 09:04 TD ATL (9:04) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 18-K.Britt INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones at LA 33. 45-D.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 20 – LA 0
  • Q3 13:29 TD ATL (13:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-T.Gabriel for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 27 – LA 0
  • Q3 04:01 TD ATL (4:01) 26-T.Coleman right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 34 – LA 0
  • Q3 02:56 TD ATL (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 21 for -10 yards (44-V.Beasley). FUMBLES (44-V.Beasley), RECOVERED by ATL-44-V.Beasley at LA 21. 44-V.Beasley for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 41 – LA 0
  • Q4 15:00 TD LA (15:00) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 42 – LA 6
  • Q4 02:49 TD LA (2:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 42 – LA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:21) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to LA 38, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin to LA 43 for 5 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 32%

    (7:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:47) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to LA 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 36 for 25 yards (80-L.Toilolo). PENALTY on ATL-55-P.Worrilow, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 36.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:06) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to ATL 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:39) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to ATL 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-55-N.Grigsby.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (10:21) 5-M.Bosher punts 66 yards to LA 14, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (6:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to ATL 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:58) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to LA 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at ATL 49 for 27 yards (42-P.DiMarco; 14-E.Weems).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:28) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to LA 6, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 7 for 1 yard (55-P.Worrilow).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to ATL 32, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:19) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to LA 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 23 for 10 yards (47-J.Harris).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:20) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:58) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to LA 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin to LA 45 for 21 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on LA-55-N.Grigsby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 30.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to LA 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin to LA 21 for -7 yards (28-T.Ward). PENALTY on LA-39-M.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 21.