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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to LA 6, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 7 for 1 yard (55-P.Worrilow).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.05 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP