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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 84

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to ATL 32, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.30 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 84, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 42, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP