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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 42 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to LA 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin to LA 45 for 21 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on LA-55-N.Grigsby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.30 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model