Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 42 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to LA 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin to LA 21 for -7 yards (28-T.Ward). PENALTY on LA-39-M.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.86 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -2.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model