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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.23 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP