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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to ATL 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model