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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to BAL 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP