BAL @ NE — 4th & Data

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HC John Harbaugh

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HC Bill Belichick

Monday 2016-12-12 · 20:30 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌨 Snow Spread 6.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

BAL

24.7%

75.3%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NE offense: +0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.223 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.032 EPA/dropback
BAL offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
BAL defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 19

–

NE 28

Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

BAL

Crockett Gillmore TE Out Thigh

Lorenzo Taliaferro RB Out Thigh

Alex Lewis T Doubtful Ankle

Marshal Yanda G Questionable Shoulder

NE

Danny Amendola WR Out Ankle

Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle

Jordan Richards S Questionable Knee

Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Hamstring

Eric Rowe CB Questionable Hamstring

Matt Slater WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 23

–

NE 30

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:53 SAF NE (10:53) 30-K.Dixon right tackle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (90-M.Brown, 23-P.Chung). BAL 0 – NE 2
Q1 01:09 TD NE (1:09) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 14th Rush TD of season, ties franchise record (Martin '95 & '96). BAL 0 – NE 8
Q2 09:31 TD NE (9:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 19-M.Mitchell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – NE 15
Q2 00:16 FG BAL (:16) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – NE 16
Q3 08:50 TD NE (8:50) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 88-M.Bennett for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – NE 22
Q3 06:54 TD BAL (6:54) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 84-D.Waller for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – NE 23
Q3 05:29 TD BAL (5:29) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 30-K.Dixon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – NE 23
Q4 06:39 FG BAL (6:39) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 20 – NE 23
Q4 06:28 TD NE (6:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 15-C.Hogan for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 450th career TD pass, 4th player all-time to achieve that milestone. NE 15-Hogan 2nd career 100-yard game. BAL 20 – NE 29
Q4 02:07 FG BAL (2:07) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 23 – NE 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP

p(convert) 63%

(13:45) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to BAL 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.
Q1 BAL 4th & 16 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(12:02) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to NE 37, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 23-P.Chung.
Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP

p(convert) 50%

(11:04) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to BAL 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.
Q1 NE 4th & 20 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 50%

(8:00) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

(5:58) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (58-S.McClellin), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch, recovered by BAL-93-L.Guy at NE 26. BAL 9-Tucker breaks streak of 35 consecutive FG, 5th longest streak all-time.
Q2 BAL 4th & 12 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 37%

(13:02) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to NE 11, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(2:28) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to NE 17, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-50-A.McClellan.
Q2 NE 4th & 15 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:11) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to BAL 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-D.Hester pushed ob at BAL 48 for 12 yards (36-B.King).
Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 72%

(:16) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 84

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP

p(convert) 72%

(12:51) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to NE 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 23-P.Chung to NE 35 for 7 yards (41-A.Levine; 48-P.Onwuasor).
Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(7:08) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to NE 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 24-Cy.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-10-C.Moore at NE 3.
Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(3:22) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to BAL 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(14:32) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to NE 23, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56%

(13:03) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to BAL 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

(6:39) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 20 late-game

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 90%

(2:07) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 25 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.79 EP

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%

(:13) 29-L.Blount right tackle to BAL 21 for 4 yards (91-M.Judon; 50-A.McClellan). Tom Brady 100th career home victory.