Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New England Patriots 16

(2:28) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to NE 17, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-50-A.McClellan.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.68 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model