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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 88

New England Patriots 16 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to BAL 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-D.Hester pushed ob at BAL 48 for 12 yards (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.88 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 88, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 46, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model