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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 5 at the 32
Baltimore Ravens 0 – New England Patriots 16
What Actually Happened
(:16) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
The Three Options
GO
+0.75 EP
-
39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.46 EP
- 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -0.36 EP
KICK
+1.92 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
- 28% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT
-0.01 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
