4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 3 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to NE 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 24-Cy.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-10-C.Moore at NE 3.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model