4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 55

New England Patriots 23 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to BAL 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model