Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 17 – New England Patriots 23

(14:32) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to NE 23, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.75 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model