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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 70

New England Patriots 23 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to BAL 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.62 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model