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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 25

New England Patriots 30 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(:13) 29-L.Blount right tackle to BAL 21 for 4 yards (91-M.Judon; 50-A.McClellan). Tom Brady 100th career home victory.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.00 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.79 EP