4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 36

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.91 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP