Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- DET offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- CHI offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- Matthew Stafford (DET): +0.157 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 14
CHI
DET
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:32 FG CHI (1:32) 4-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – DET 0
- Q2 04:21 FG DET (4:21) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 3 – DET 3
- Q2 00:24 TD DET (:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-A.Boldin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – DET 9
- Q3 05:40 FG DET (5:40) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 3 – DET 13
- Q3 03:26 TD CHI (3:26) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass deep right to 81-C.Meredith for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – DET 13
- Q4 07:14 TD CHI (7:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 80-A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by 22-C.LeBlanc at DET 24. 22-C.LeBlanc for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – DET 13
- Q4 03:27 TD DET (3:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – DET 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DET 4th & 13 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 42%
(8:53) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 90%
(1:32) 4-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(14:27) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to CHI 4, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-29-J.Bademosi.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(11:37) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to DET 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-A.Roberts to CHI 45 for 37 yards (58-J.Anderson). PENALTY on DET-44-J.Bell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 25.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%
(4:21) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(2:34) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 19, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 26%
(11:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 65%
(5:40) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 17 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 28%
(8:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to DET 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 44 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 45%
(:19) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Bellamy (23-D.Slay).
See the full breakdown →
