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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CHI
36.6%
DET
63.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (DET): +0.157 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CHI

Mike Adams T Doubtful Back
Eddie Royal WR Doubtful Toe
Jonathan Anderson LB Questionable Hamstring
Johnthan Banks CB Questionable Ankle
Josh Bellamy WR Questionable Shoulder
Marquess Wilson WR Questionable Groin

DET

Travis Swanson C Out Concussion
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Ankle
Don Carey S Questionable Hamstring
Eric Ebron TE Questionable Knee
Marvin Jones WR Questionable Quadricep
DeAndre Levy LB Questionable Knee
Theo Riddick RB Questionable Wrist
Dwayne Washington RB Questionable Ankle
Tahir Whitehead LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 17
–
DET 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:32 FG CHI (1:32) 4-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – DET 0
  • Q2 04:21 FG DET (4:21) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 3 – DET 3
  • Q2 00:24 TD DET (:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-A.Boldin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – DET 9
  • Q3 05:40 FG DET (5:40) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 3 – DET 13
  • Q3 03:26 TD CHI (3:26) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass deep right to 81-C.Meredith for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – DET 13
  • Q4 07:14 TD CHI (7:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 80-A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by 22-C.LeBlanc at DET 24. 22-C.LeBlanc for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – DET 13
  • Q4 03:27 TD DET (3:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – DET 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 42%

    (8:53) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 90%

    (1:32) 4-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:27) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to CHI 4, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-29-J.Bademosi.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:37) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to DET 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-A.Roberts to CHI 45 for 37 yards (58-J.Anderson). PENALTY on DET-44-J.Bell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 25.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (4:21) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:34) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 19, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 26%

    (11:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 65%

    (5:40) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 17 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 28%

    (8:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to DET 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 45%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Bellamy (23-D.Slay).