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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 51

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to DET 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.63 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model