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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 20

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 4-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.71 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 20, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model