Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 62

Chicago Bears 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to DET 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-A.Roberts to CHI 45 for 37 yards (58-J.Anderson). PENALTY on DET-44-J.Bell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.33 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model