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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:57) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.97 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model