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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

HOU
36.4%
IND
63.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Andrew Luck (IND) +0.107 vs Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.074 EPA/dropback
  • IND offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

HOU

Tyler Ervin RB Out Ribs
Braxton Miller WR Out Shoulder
Tom Savage QB Out right Elbow
John Simon LB Out Chest
Jaelen Strong WR Out Ankle
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Ribs
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Elbow
Brian Cushing LB Questionable Back

IND

Clayton Geathers S Out Neck
Denzelle Good T Out Concussion
Zach Kerr DT Out Concussion
Robert Mathis LB Out Bicep
Patrick Robinson CB Out Groin
Curt Maggitt LB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 22
–
IND 17

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:35 FG IND (8:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. HOU 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 04:04 FG HOU (4:04) 8-N.Novak 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – IND 3
  • Q2 02:29 TD HOU (2:29) (Run formation) 63-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 26-L.Miller up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – IND 3
  • Q2 00:17 FG HOU (:17) 8-N.Novak 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 13 – IND 3
  • Q3 12:49 FG HOU (12:49) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 16 – IND 3
  • Q3 10:00 TD IND (10:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 23-F.Gore for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-75-J.Mewhort was injured during the play. He is Out. HOU 16 – IND 9
  • Q4 11:58 FG HOU (11:58) 8-N.Novak 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. Penalty on IND-32-T.Green, Running Into the Kicker, declined. HOU 19 – IND 10
  • Q4 09:14 TD IND (9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-32-R.Nelson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. HOU 19 – IND 16
  • Q4 02:51 FG HOU (2:51) 8-N.Novak 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 22 – IND 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (8:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to IND 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 18 for 2 yards (43-C.Moore).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (4:04) 8-N.Novak 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 26%

    (1:08) 1-P.McAfee punts 32 yards to HOU 20, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 32%

    (9:57) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%

    (:51) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 71%

    (:17) 8-N.Novak 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (12:49) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 14 for 2 yards (20-D.Jones).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 88%

    (11:58) 8-N.Novak 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. Penalty on IND-32-T.Green, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 93%

    (2:51) 8-N.Novak 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 50%

    (1:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 33-R.Turbin [75-V.Wilfork].