HOU @ IND — 4th & Data

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Indianapolis Colts

6-7 HC Chuck Pagano

Sunday 2016-12-11 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

HOU

37.2%

IND

62.8%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

HOU offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
QB edge to IND: Andrew Luck (IND) +0.107 vs Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.074 EPA/dropback
IND offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
IND defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
HOU defense: +0.023 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20 13–27

–

IND 24 17–31

Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 14

HOU

Tyler Ervin RB Out Ribs

Braxton Miller WR Out Shoulder

Tom Savage QB Out right Elbow

John Simon LB Out Chest

Jaelen Strong WR Out Ankle

Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Ribs

Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Elbow

Brian Cushing LB Questionable Back

IND

Clayton Geathers S Out Neck

Denzelle Good T Out Concussion

Zach Kerr DT Out Concussion

Robert Mathis LB Out Bicep

Patrick Robinson CB Out Groin

Curt Maggitt LB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 22

–

IND 17

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:35 FG IND (8:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. HOU 0 – IND 3
Q1 04:04 FG HOU (4:04) 8-N.Novak 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – IND 3
Q2 02:29 TD HOU (2:29) (Run formation) 63-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 26-L.Miller up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – IND 3
Q2 00:17 FG HOU (:17) 8-N.Novak 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 13 – IND 3
Q3 12:49 FG HOU (12:49) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 16 – IND 3
Q3 10:00 TD IND (10:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 23-F.Gore for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-75-J.Mewhort was injured during the play. He is Out. HOU 16 – IND 9
Q4 11:58 FG HOU (11:58) 8-N.Novak 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. Penalty on IND-32-T.Green, Running Into the Kicker, declined. HOU 19 – IND 10
Q4 09:14 TD IND (9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-32-R.Nelson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. HOU 19 – IND 16
Q4 02:51 FG HOU (2:51) 8-N.Novak 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 22 – IND 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 47%

(12:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

(8:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 73

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP

p(convert) 71%

(6:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to IND 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 18 for 2 yards (43-C.Moore).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

(4:04) 8-N.Novak 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 26%

(1:08) 1-P.McAfee punts 32 yards to HOU 20, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 32%

(9:57) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 37

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%

(:51) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 71%

(:17) 8-N.Novak 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

(12:49) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP

p(convert) 70%

(7:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 14 for 2 yards (20-D.Jones).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 88%

(11:58) 8-N.Novak 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. Penalty on IND-32-T.Green, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 93%

(2:51) 8-N.Novak 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 42 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 50%

(1:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 33-R.Turbin [75-V.Wilfork].
See the full breakdown →

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