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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 33

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:17) 8-N.Novak 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model