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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 6

Houston Texans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 6, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model