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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 22

Houston Texans 16 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 8-N.Novak 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. Penalty on IND-32-T.Green, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.45 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model