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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 3

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 8-N.Novak 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.91 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +0.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP