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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 1-P.McAfee punts 32 yards to HOU 20, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.73 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth +0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model