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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Minnesota Vikings
4th & 1 at the 1
Minnesota Vikings 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 44-M.Asiata left end to JAX 1 for no gain (99-S.Marks).
The Three Options
GO
+3.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
- 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth -0.34 EP
KICK
+1.75 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
