4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
MIN Away

Minnesota Vikings

7-6 HC Mike Zimmer
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-11 HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 13:00 ET EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

MIN
51.3%
JAX
48.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Blake Bortles (JAX): -0.089 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • MIN on 3 more days rest than JAX

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22 15–29
–
JAX 21 14–28
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 14

MIN

Joe Berger C Out Concussion
Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Harrison Smith S Out Ankle
Edmond Robinson LB Questionable Hamstring
Marcus Sherels CB Questionable Rib

JAX

Allen Hurns WR Out Hamstring
Jared Odrick DE Out Shoulder
Denard Robinson RB Out Ankle
Julius Thomas TE Out Back
Peyton Thompson S Out Ankle
Brandon Linder G Questionable Ankle
Chris Ivory RB Questionable Hamstring
Dan Skuta LB Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 25
–
JAX 16

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:30 FG MIN (12:30) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 3 – JAX 0
  • Q1 07:57 FG MIN (7:57) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 13:12 FG JAX (13:12) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. MIN 6 – JAX 3
  • Q2 10:53 FG MIN (10:53) 2-K.Forbath 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 9 – JAX 3
  • Q2 06:22 FG JAX (6:22) 2-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. MIN 9 – JAX 6
  • Q2 00:13 FG JAX (:13) 2-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. MIN 9 – JAX 9
  • Q3 08:34 FG MIN (8:34) 2-K.Forbath 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 12 – JAX 9
  • Q3 03:54 TD JAX (3:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 81-B.Walters for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – JAX 15
  • Q4 14:18 TD MIN (14:18) 44-M.Asiata up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 18 – JAX 16
  • Q4 02:17 TD MIN (2:17) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – JAX 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 84%

    (12:30) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 17 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:40) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at MIN 41 for 9 yards (30-C.Grant).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (7:57) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (6:02) (Punt formation) 30-C.Grant right end to JAX 43 for 9 yards (48-Z.Line). Fake Punt

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 21%

    (3:22) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-46-C.Tinker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 12.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:17) 18-J.Locke punts 42 yards to JAX 35, Center-47-K.McDermott. 81-B.Walters to JAX 39 for 4 yards (84-C.Patterson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%

    (13:12) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%

    (10:53) 2-K.Forbath 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 59%

    (6:22) 2-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 44-M.Asiata left end to JAX 1 for no gain (99-S.Marks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 97%

    (:13) 2-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (11:27) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 79%

    (8:34) 2-K.Forbath 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:48) 3-B.Nortman punts 29 yards to MIN 41, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds. Minn 27 Got a hand on the ball

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:14) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to MIN 46, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-52-H.Pullard.

    See the full breakdown →